Executive Summary
Vietnam's economy continues to demonstrate robust growth momentum in 2025, with GDP expanding 7.96 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. Vietnam's GDP hit 7.52% growth in H1 2025, the highest first-half performance since 2011, led by industry and services. The first half of 2025 recorded growth of 7.52%, marking the highest mid-year growth rate since 2011, driven by strong performance in services and manufacturing sectors, despite global trade tensions and US tariffs.
Key Economic Indicators 2025
1. GDP Growth Performance
- Q1 2025: 6.9% year-on-year growth
- Q2 2025: 7.96% (year-on-year)
- First Half 2025: 7.52%
2025 GDP Growth Forecasts:
- World Bank: 5.8%
- Asian Development Bank (ADB): 6.6%
- IMF: 5.2%
- Government Target: 8.3–8.5 percent
2. Inflation Rate
- May 2025: 3.24%
- June 2025: 3.57%
- IMF Forecast for 2025: 2.9%
- ADB Forecast for 2025: 4.0%
3. Unemployment Rate
Q1 2025: 2.20% (down from 2.22% in Q4 2024)
4. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
- First 5 months of 2025: Registered Capital: $18.4 billion (up 51% year-on-year), Disbursed Capital: $8.9 billion
- First Half 2025: Total FDI: US$21.51 billion (32.6 percent year-on-year increase)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Q1 GDP | 6.9% |
| Q2 GDP | 7.96% |
Sectoral Analysis
Primary Growth Drivers
- Services Sector
- Manufacturing Sector
- Export Industries
- Banking Sector
Retail sales reached 1.708 quadrillion VND (US$66.83 billion) in Q1 2025, a 9.9% year-on-year growth.
Challenges and Risk Factors
- Global Trade Tensions
- US Tariff Policies
- Geopolitical Instability
- FDI Overdependence
- Macroeconomic Stability
Historical Comparison
- 2024: GDP growth of 7.1%
- 2025 (forecast): Growth may moderate
Economic Outlook and Projections
Vietnam's economy started 2025 strongly, but the outlook is more challenging amid global trade tensions.
Conclusion
Vietnam's economic performance in 2025 demonstrates the country's resilience and growth potential.
Sources and Citations
- Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate
- International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile